It has been more than four years since Trump officially launched the Sino US trade war in March 2018. Even if the American government changed its position, the tariff barriers formed by the trade war have not been eliminated; The unprecedented new epidemic came quickly and quickly, which hit almost all industries around the world and changed people's social activities and economic production mode in an instant. Where should our manufacturing enterprises go in the changing times? This article attempts to discuss this issue from the perspective of the enterprise and industry.
1、 Resumption of work and production under lasting epidemic resistance
More than a year ago, when the new epidemic came to us quickly and quickly, many people might not have thought that this was just the beginning of a long "war". Even today, when vaccination has started in many countries, the epidemic situation in some countries is still rebounding, and the global prevention and control situation is still grim. The information conveyed by the scientific community is thought-provoking: the impact of the new crown pandemic "may last for decades", the virus may co-exist with humans for a long time, and humans still have a long way to go to truly overcome the epidemic. The virus mutation is accelerating, the "anti epidemic gap" is deepening, the "anti epidemic fatigue" is growing, and a few Western politicians and the media are constantly "anti epidemic interference"... In the face of many challenges, to win this "protracted war", mankind must work together and unite. As an enterprise, we should pay attention to the problem of how to fight the epidemic and return to work and production.
The new epidemic hit almost all industries around the world, causing many industries and enterprises to begin to face profit and repayment crises. At present, although the critical moment of the epidemic in China has passed, there is still a long way to go before the end of the epidemic and the return of life to normal according to the overall world situation, not to mention that even if the epidemic ends, many things will not go back. In order to prevent the continued spread and expansion of the epidemic, governments around the world have taken active foot bans to force residents to isolate at home. Walking between cities and countries has become a luxury. All these have changed people's social activities and economic production mode in an instant.
Historical experience tells us that short-term measures taken in times of crisis will cause changes lasting decades or even longer and may become the new normal. The new epidemic has also accelerated a series of changes, such as online teaching, working at home, online streaming entertainment consumption, remote video interaction, online shopping, etc. Some experts call it "closed economy". With the help of science and technology and the extension of home isolation, many of the above lifestyles are likely to become part of people's daily life in the coming years.
To some extent, this crisis will bring about some major changes in government policies, consumer behavior and industrial sectors; Our manufacturers must find out which social, commercial and political environments have changed due to the epidemic, and take appropriate measures to prepare for the "new normal".
The prevention and control of epidemic situation is just like a ten thousand meter race, and all previous efforts will be wasted. The prevention and control of epidemic situation and the resumption of work and production are both important, and prevention and control are still the top priority. At present, the imported risks brought by the continuous spread of the international epidemic are still increasing, and the risks of sporadic cases and local outbreaks in China still exist. The symptoms of the new coronavirus from infection to onset are complex and diverse, some symptoms are atypical, which is not easy to cause concern, but the transmission is strong. Too many lessons warn us that even zero cases do not mean zero risk and zero hidden danger. In order to create a safer environment for the resumption of work, production, business and school in Hengshui City, and consolidate the hard won effect of prevention and control, we must resolutely perform the duty of epidemic prevention. In particular, with the acceleration of the resumption of work and production, the flow of personnel has increased. All industries, regions and units should be cautious, take strict precautions, stick to various epidemic prevention measures, and never let the war situation reverse again.
In the epidemic prevention and control battle for more than a year, our company has adhered to the belief that "epidemic is an order, and prevention and control is a responsibility". We have always attached great importance to it, actively organized, and carefully deployed to minimize the risk of epidemic through all-round control. In addition to strictly implementing the arrangements and arrangements made by the higher authorities, the specific measures have actively played the role of grass-roots party organizations as a fighting fortress in the prevention and control of the epidemic, recruited party members and volunteers, formed a party member commando, set up a party member volunteer post at the gate post to take turns on duty, and worked with security personnel on both posts and responsibilities. It is difficult, difficult, dangerous, and heavy. Party member commandos will appear wherever needed, It has truly protected the physical and mental health of employees with sincerity and care, and has returned to work and production in an early manner. It has been rated as the "National Advanced Anti epidemic Unit" by China Rubber Industry Association.
After the danger peak is over, the economic activity is active, which will inevitably bring about the flow of people and logistics, and the epidemic prevention and control just needs to reduce interaction. To find a balance between the two, we need to take out the spirit of "embroidery", work hard on "overall planning" and "precision". At present, our company is still highly alert to the prevention and control of the epidemic. Under the situation of almost opening up the tourism market nationwide, our company has implemented the incentive system of "advanced individuals travel domestically every year, and model workers travel abroad every other year" for more than 20 years. Since last year, it has not been opened. Recently, we have simply "replaced tourism with capital" and issued cash subsidies to prevent problems. On the whole, we have also prepared a plan, waiting for the thousand sails to be exhausted and the spring flowers to bloom in an all-round way.
The prevention and control of the epidemic situation and the resumption of production also need to work together and dare to fight. We Hengxiang Science and Technology Party Committee, General Manager's Office Meeting and the vast number of Party members, cadres and workers are facing the test with confidence. We have the courage to take responsibility, the wisdom of scientific prevention and control, the ability to make overall plans, and the ability to organize and implement. We think deeply about problems and work forward.
The impact and impact of the epidemic is only short-term. With concerted efforts, we will be able to achieve the goal of economic and social development!
2、 Epidemic situation affects the trend of foreign trade
Because our country has made correct decisions and the people have responded and supported actively, this epidemic has not caused us more serious damage. The impact of the epidemic is that the trust relationship between China and Western countries, especially the United States, has been damaged, which is worrisome. Why?
The reason why China has become the factory of the world and why China's manufacturing industry has such great capacity is that we have a huge cost advantage. This cost advantage will not be greatly impacted by the rising labor and land prices, because China's huge supply chain and the efficiency of its own operation have changed the comprehensive cost structure. But under what circumstances can the cost advantage be broken through? When do people not consider problems from the perspective of cost? It is very important that once we start to consider issues from the perspective of security, the cost advantage is an advantage that can be broken through. This time, we can see that the erosion of mutual trust between China and the United States may lead the United States and other Western countries to develop security related industries at any cost.
However, experts also predict that the overall scale of these safety related industries in Western countries will not be too large, regardless of cost, so the impact on China's manufacturing industry is still limited in the short and medium term. However, there is one thing that deserves our attention. When we review the entire economic history, we will find that security related industries are often closely related to the frontier of technological development. For example, in the "World War II", the atomic bomb program of the United States derived a series of very important technologies, which led to a series of extremely important economic processes in the world after the "World War II". Another example is the Apollo moon landing plan of the United States. These are all safety related industries, which account for a small proportion. However, they have a strong guiding force for the trend of the economic situation, which means that this is the real prospect, real vitality and real foundation of the future technology and future economy.
If these safety related industries return to the United States and other Western countries, it is possible that China and the United States will form two parallel production systems. For innovation in the sense of 0 to 1, it is a very important innovation to introduce cutting-edge technology. What is the ultimate need for innovation from 0 to 1? What is needed is a developed basic research, innovative ability, and a system to attract various high-end talents. At present, the West still has advantages over China, so once such a large-scale western reconstruction of the security industry occurs, it will have no impact on China in the short and medium term, but it may pose a substantial challenge to China's economy after more than 10 years and 20 years.
All this is not certain to come. It depends on whether we and the world will go to the extreme. This is unlikely. But as an enterprise, it should have a sense that the economy belongs to the economy, and the enterprise cannot be coerced into populism. This will certainly cause serious harm to the enterprise's own decision-making and operation.
As a specific enterprise, how should it deal with the trade war? The expert gave a very simple suggestion, which is of course a rough framework suggestion. You should observe your enterprise and your company. You can draw a quadrant. The complexity of the company's industrial supply chain and the proportion of labor in the total cost.
In industries with high supply chain complexity and low labor cost, such enterprises cannot make money from China. But if your company and factory are in such a quadrant with a high proportion of labor force and low complexity of supply chain, your enterprise will be very good. If the complexity of the supply chain is high and the proportion of labor cost is high, is it operational? It is worth thinking deeply. However, one of the prerequisites for the transition is that the location of your new factory should not be too far away from China, because there is demand for China's supply chain. However, if the quadrant is low in complexity of the supply chain and labor cost, whether you transfer depends on the market, and it doesn't matter where you transfer.
3、 The trade war will not have a great impact on China's manufacturing industry, but it will have a fundamental change
Some experts pointed out that today's economic space and political space of various countries have been highly different, and this difference will make the trade war and other ways of using a series of national political means to intervene and affect the economy no longer a simple direct effect in the past, but more difficult to achieve effective results.
For example, our bridge supporting equipment industry, which was previously exported to Europe and other places, is now mainly targeted at Africa, Southeast Asia and other markets. In 2020, Padma Bridge, the "bridge of dreams" in Bangladesh organized by China Railway Bridge Bureau, adopted more than 20 million bridge bearing products of our company. In the manufacturing of these products, all raw materials, some accessories and semi-finished products are completed by a third party. A more intuitive example is that Samsung mobile phone factory moved to Vietnam, not the whole industry chain of the mobile phone has moved away, but only part of the production process, mainly the assembly process of the terminal products. For the upstream supply chain, there is still a great dependence on China, and this dependence will continue in the foreseeable future and will not be replaced.
However, the trade war will certainly have an impact on China's economy and on China's manufacturing industry. It is more reflected in the changes of export destinations and trade structures. How to understand it?
In the trade war, the United States targeted the famous enterprises in China. However, we can see in the news reports that such targeted killing not only harms Chinese enterprises, but also severely harms American enterprises, because a product is across multiple countries, and certainly across China and the United States. Once Chinese enterprises are seriously damaged, it will also affect the upstream chip factories and other core technology enterprises in the United States. Not only China, but also an enterprise as an important customer of multinational enterprises in the world. Once the enterprise is seriously damaged, the company in the United States will also be damaged. So we can see a lot of news recently. Chinese enterprises are doing all kinds of actions to avoid laws and regulations. Similarly, the enterprises in the United States are doing all kinds of actions to avoid laws and regulations, In this sense, Chinese and American enterprises are a community of interests. Why did such a community of interests emerge? This means that the political space and the economic space have been highly separated and inconsistent.
Therefore, we can see that even if the trade war comes deeper, enterprises will have various ways to avoid it. In addition, we are forced to rely on our own efforts to make progress. Our company has independently developed two new products (LMU and DSU) in the construction project of the central platform of the Wenchang Gas Field Cluster in the South China Sea, breaking the foreign technology monopoly for many years. They are the only two "monopoly breaking products" highlighted in the CCTV News Studio. The arrival of the trade war may not have a substantial impact on the scale of our foreign trade, because it does not affect China alone. However, it will bring interesting changes, that is, the trade destination and trade structure of China's foreign trade may change——
In the Sino US trade war, most of the products exported to the United States are end products that do not require spare parts, and these upstream supply chains may be in many places outside the United States. The original trade destination has changed, and this change is accompanied by changes in the trade structure. In the past, a large amount of trade was for export of end products, but today it is possible that a large amount of trade was for export of semi-finished parts, and the destination was not the original United States, but Vietnam or other places. However, in terms of the overall trade volume, China will not have much change, including enterprises moving to Vietnam, many of which are also assembly enterprises. It is likely that these enterprises are invested by Chinese people, so they are left to the right.
From this perspective, we can see that the impact of the trade war on China's economy and on China's manufacturing industry will certainly have, but not too much.
4、 Finding "opportunity" in "danger" under the new normal of epidemic prevention and control
Which manufacturing industries will have development opportunities after the epidemic? Experts believe that there will be three major changes in the post epidemic manufacturing industry.
First, through this epidemic, the digital and intelligent transformation of the manufacturing industry will be accelerated. This epidemic has made more manufacturing enterprises realize the importance of "machines", especially "intelligent machines", and will more actively apply the industrial Internet for intelligent and digital changes, which will certainly promote the further implementation of relevant strategies and tasks of China's advanced manufacturing industry.
Second, through this epidemic, some manufacturing enterprises will be more flexible in production and operation. During the epidemic, some medical equipment enterprises, clothing enterprises, petrochemical enterprises, automobile manufacturing enterprises, even Foxconn and other contract manufacturing enterprises, according to the needs of fighting the epidemic, switched to the production of protective clothing, masks and other medical protection products, fully reflecting the flexibility and rapid responsiveness of their flexible production and operation to meet the emergency needs of the market, which also played a demonstration role for other manufacturing enterprises.
Third, the global epidemic has made some manufacturing enterprises pay more attention to the strong domestic demand market. The outbreak of Neocoronal Pneumonia has become a "global epidemic", and the reduction of external demand will last for a long time. However, the epidemic situation in China has been basically controlled, and the resumption of work and production has been comprehensively promoted. The market vitality and potential will be gradually activated, prompting some manufacturing enterprises to turn the external demand market to the domestic demand market.
Facing the new situation, manufacturing enterprises should seize the opportunity to actively promote intelligent manufacturing and realize transformation and upgrading.
First, strengthen innovation leadership. The main supporting factor for the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry is the improvement of technological innovation capability. At present, China's intelligent manufacturing is at the primary stage of development, and it is urgent to seek breakthroughs in key short board equipment, basic parts, industrial software and other key links and weak areas, so as to support the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry to intelligent manufacturing with technological innovation.
Second, systematically summarize and replicate the experience model of intelligent manufacturing demonstration projects. Systematically evaluate the Intelligent Manufacturing Development Plan (2016-2020) and the Intelligent Manufacturing Engineering Implementation Guide (2016-2020), continue to promote intelligent manufacturing demonstration projects, adhere to promoting development through application, further promote demonstration applications, and replicate and promote the formed experience model to similar enterprises in the same industry.
Third, give full play to the advantages of the strong domestic market and strengthen the role of market pull. Get through the recovery and growth chain of huge domestic market demand, provide more opportunities for intelligent transformation and productivity improvement of the manufacturing industry, and create more commercial application scenarios for the development of new technologies and products.
At present, the world's new top epidemic has been politicized, and the trade war is a political contest, more specifically, a concrete manifestation of the United States' global hegemony and trade protectionism. It shows a truth that the United States and some of its Western allies will never sit back and watch China's strength. It will certainly go to extremes and craziness. The key is how we can respond flexibly and skillfully, keep our composure, focus on ourselves and do our own thing well. In fact, as a saying spread on the Internet said: as long as the thought does not slide, the method is always more difficult.